Hiring of college graduates in 2004 is expected to improve slightly over last year, a national recruiting expert said today during a conference at DePaul University in Chicago.

Philip D. Gardner, director of the Collegiate Employment Research Institute at Michigan State University, revealed his annual recruiting trends survey during the "Trends in Recruiting" Conference at DePaul’s Lincoln Park Campus Student Center, sponsored by the Midwest Association of Colleges & Employers. More than 300 college recruiting professionals from 100 colleges and universities were in attendance, along with representatives from 36 corporations. His survey, which encompasses the responses of 450 employers from various sectors around the country, indicates that hiring of graduates with bachelor’s degrees will increase by three to eight percent over last year.

Gardner, whose annual forecasts are regarded as an influential indicator for the industry, also noted that among bachelor’s degree graduates, companies hiring business majors and biological/physical science majors will increase hiring, while all other majors will experience a slight decline. Hiring is expected to increase in the retail, transportation, finance, lodging, administrative services and wholesale sectors, while it is expected to decrease in the professional services, health, information and public sectors. The entire South, from coast to coast, and the Pacific Northwest are the geographic areas where hiring increases are expected.

In addition, companies with more than 2,000 employees are expected to increase hiring, while fewer opportunities are forecast with small businesses. Starting salaries also are expected to make a slight increase overall, between one and three percent over 2003, although 60 percent of respondents said they did not foresee altering their salary structure at all.

While hiring trends forecast a departure from some of the struggles of recent years, Gardner cautioned against high expectations for a quick recovery in hiring numbers.

"We will not see a sharp, upward climb in hiring," he said. "There is nothing in our projections that will give a quick push to the numbers. It will be a slow and steady increase."

Gardner explained some of the factors that have been holding back the job market, including a structural realignment from a manufacturing economy to a knowledge-based economy, lack of productivity compared to other countries, increased health care and energy costs, and the structural collapse of the public sector due to budget crises in states around the country.

"All of these things have a startling impact when determining where all the jobs are," he said.

Those graduating with MBAs this year also will have to battle a slight decrease in the hiring of MBA grads, due to restructured job positions at many employers, who determined that fewer positions require employees with MBAs. Also, the two largest classes of MBA graduates in history are expected in 2004 and 2005, making competition for available positions fierce.

Finally, nearly 70 percent of employers said they intend to focus on this year’s graduates when hiring, so graduates from the previous three years who are still in the job market likely will not see an increase in available opportunities.

Gardner offered three areas of emphasis for getting the job market in the United States "out of the woods." First, a new focus on managing knowledge-based workers is crucial. Also, colleges need to elevate their expectations of all students in order to better compete in the global marketplace. Finally, American employers and employees need to restore their ethical compass, as recent corporate scandals are still tainting the reputation of the nation’s economy.

"Nobody is going to put their confidence in a system where unethical behavior is condoned," he said.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Media interested in obtaining a copy of Dr. Gardner’s executive summary should call Shawn Malayter at 312/362-6978. Dr. Gardner’s full report can be ordered through the Collegiate Employment Research Institute at 517/355-2211.