Florida Absentee Ballots, Not Recount, is Key to Election

Absentee ballots, and not the vote recount in Florida, will likely decide who gets the Sunshine State’s 25 electoral votes to win the presidential election, according to DePaul University College of Liberal Arts and Sciences Dean Michael Mezey, a political science professor with expertise in presidential elections and campaign issues.

Mezey, who has been predicting for more than a week that Florida would be the key state in the race, said the recount is unlikely to tip the electoral vote tally in Democratic candidate Al Gore’s favor. “The key thing in Florida is not the recount but the counting of the absentee ballots, which usually lean toward Republicans,” Mezey said. “Gore may be able to make up a few hundred votes through the recount, but he is likely to lose this increase because of the absentee ballots.”

Mezey said Gore’s apparent edge over Republican candidate George W. Bush in the popular vote was caused by three factors. “More supporters of Green Party candidate Ralph Nader than predicted decided at the last minute to cast their ballots for Gore,” Mezey said. “Also, Gore’s margins in large states, such as Illinois and California, were bigger than predicted, and he did better than expected in the smaller states that Bush won,” Mezey said.

If Bush prevails in the electoral count, “the interesting question then would be how the American people, most of whom have never heard of the Electoral College, will react to having a president elected who receives fewer popular votes than his opponent,” Mezey observed.

“John Wayne Theory” Explain Election Outcome

If George W. Bush does win the election, DePaul University Marketing Professor Bruce Newman, a nationally known political marketing expert, says the “The John Wayne Theory” explains it.

“Bush continues the era of cowboy boot-wearing presidents,” Newman said. “The American public is yearning for the heroes of the great western frontier. They seek a candidate that has manufactured an image of himself as a John Wayne figure—someone who is macho, with a swagger.”

“The public voted on the basis of personality, not on the issues,” Newman said. Newman is the author of the books “The Marketing of the President” and “The Mass Marketing of Politics: Democracy in an Age of Manufactured Images.”

Editor’s Note: Newman is available for interviews after 1 p.m. He can be reached at 312/362-5186.