Who will win the presidential election to be held one year from Nov. 7? The candidate who is best at mass marketing his image, according to DePaul University Associate Professor Bruce Newman, author of the recently published "The Mass Marketing of Politics: Democracy in an Age of Manufactured Images."

     Newman, a national expert on political marketing and voter behavior, has studied the increasing use of mass marketing techniques in politics--tactics that sell candidate images like products. He also has seen these tactics up close as a communications advisor to top aides in Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign. With the 2000 presidential election one year away, Newman offers his analysis of the leading candidates' marketing images:

George W. Bush's Fundraising Success is Psychological Weapon, But Questions Remain

     "Bush's image has it all: money, leadership, charisma, and youth--what many would consider the essential components to winning the presidency in a post-Clinton era," Newman said. "The one thing he doesn't have is the perception of a clean record because of his refusal to answer questions about past drug use, something that may come to haunt him as John McCain becomes an increasingly attractive alternative on the Republican side. Bush also needs to enter the debates soon or he will find himself looking through the rear view mirror at McCain racing ahead of him."

     Bush's large campaign war chest has a huge impact on his image, Newman said. "For the first time in presidential campaign history, the amount of money a candidate has amassed becomes a psychological weapon against his opponents, before it is even used," he said. "Fundraising has become another poll in this country, with citizens, the media, and other influential publics using it as a measure of a candidate's success."

War Veteran and Senator John McCain Projects Leadership Image

     McCain's image as a war veteran from a distinguished military family, written about in his recently published autobiography, and his status as a senator present an appealing image to voters, Newman said. "If he begins to talk more about himself, his leadership ability and his experience as a prisoner of war, in addition to his constant reference to campaign finance reform, he might actually have a chance of winning the nomination.

     "McCain's speaking style has become more impassioned as he has begun to inch up in the polls," he said . "He has everything he needs to win except for money. That, the all of the 'free' media that is so critical in this era of 24-hour news cycles, will come his way if he wins New Hampshire."

Steve Forbes Sharpens His Image with Wit and Poise, Plays Spoiler Role

     Forbes, whose image suffered from criticism about the amount of money he spent on his last presidential bid, won't be as stung by that complaint this time with Bush in the race, Newman observed. "He is positioning himself to be the spoiler to Bush. He has the wit, poise (something he didn't have in the last presidential cycle), guts, and money to fuel the campaign," he said. Newman believes Forbes can pull enough votes from the extreme right wing to chip away at Bush's support just enough to give McCain a victory in New Hampshire. "If that happens, it's a whole new ball game on the Republican side," he said. "Forbes will always get credit for pushing the flat tax issue, but never enough credit for being a leader to win the nomination."

Third Party Image Sinks Pat Buchanan, but Poses GOP Threat

     Pat Buchanan's switch to the Reform Party dooms his 2000 bid for the presidency because the third party's image only wins over a small segment of voters, Newman said. "He now goes the way of Jesse Ventura and Donald Trump, all part of a party that will have to wait maybe 50 years to become a real threat to the system," he said. "He does, however, become a threat to the Republican nominee if he heads the Reform Party and pulls some of the right wing Republican voters away."

Focus on the Packaging of Al Gore Detracts from His Leadership Image

     If Gore was a consumer product, his marketers could be accused of spending too much attention on package redesign and not enough on product image, Newman said. "Six months ago he was wearing blue and gray pin-stripped suits, clothing that would be appropriate for a Washington insider or a corporate business leader," he observed. "Last month we saw him wearing colored suits, with dark ties, clothing appropriate for a nightclub entertainer, or maybe even a young professional out on the town. Today, we see him wearing no suit, no tie, and looking more and more like Lamar Alexander.

     "Where's his reference to the experience he brings to the job as second in command?" Newman asked. " Where is the reference to leadership, a cool head in hot times? Gore should forget about his superficial image and worry more about his ideas and leadership potential." Gore has too many of Clinton's consultants working for him, Newman said. "What these consultants forget is that Clinton could be dressed up and play the part. Poor Al does not know how to play the part after he's dressed up. Look for a Bill Bradley upset in New Hampshire."

     "The 'John McCain of the Democratic Party,' Bradley has an appealing image as a guy who is willing to speak his mind without worrying about how he looks," according to Newman "He is a man with ideas who is willing to spell out details. Like McCain, he is able to connect with voters on an emotional plane, even though his speeches are not dramatic."

     "The real test for leadership in this era of manufactured images is the ability to look people in the eye over television and make them think, correctly or not, that you understand their pain. This is something that Bush, McCain, and Bradley all have going for them," Newman concluded. "Political leaders need money to spend on television advertising to reinforce that image. Without money, the image, even the best manufactured one, or real one for that matter, cannot be conveyed. This is why Bradley needs an upset in New Hampshire to have any chance of winning the nomination. Only then will the money come his way."